Description

This analysis provides a forecast of COMP5692 prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-12-28 21.484795 22.706126 23.993708 25.458065 27.084488 28.843944 30.902712
2026-01-04 19.303077 20.948164 22.766462 24.945196 27.512317 30.476952 34.214828
2026-01-11 18.445428 20.382743 22.595543 25.348633 28.739627 32.862272 38.393011
2026-01-18 17.697537 19.831386 22.332134 25.539080 29.637281 34.845465 42.235477
2026-01-25 16.815312 19.033890 21.683170 25.158103 29.725562 35.736428 44.666940
2026-02-01 16.042936 18.309992 21.059319 24.734255 29.682204 36.396188 46.796261
2026-02-08 15.142128 17.375474 20.111629 23.815340 28.883958 35.908687 47.117364
2026-02-15 14.929938 17.283668 20.215923 24.269206 29.971334 38.168561 51.958770
2026-02-22 14.651358 17.088202 20.167584 24.502258 30.750597 40.036079 56.456423
2026-03-01 14.066039 16.471648 19.535130 23.890542 30.254342 39.890936 57.436263
2026-03-08 13.166117 15.419074 18.288606 22.369102 28.332867 37.367194 53.825969
2026-03-15 12.893197 15.174722 18.108638 22.333014 28.613912 38.362029 56.819284
2026-03-22 12.621379 14.970261 18.036494 22.539523 29.422607 40.541708 63.037322
2026-03-29 12.136003 14.470246 17.548715 22.131835 29.274927 41.152045 66.411463
2026-04-05 11.945290 14.350344 17.569361 22.458253 30.301630 43.931654 75.337968
2026-04-12 11.715520 14.164407 17.483680 22.612724 31.054727 46.328079 84.360977
2026-04-19 11.361288 13.792097 17.113582 22.303810 30.991587 47.142550 89.635516
2026-04-26 11.021692 13.426962 16.736660 21.959351 30.832751 47.738215 94.574419
2026-05-03 10.583828 12.911235 16.122578 21.209604 29.903688 46.631232 93.972187
2026-05-10 10.496466 12.881787 16.212912 21.580422 30.999992 49.957590 109.373612
2026-05-17 10.363562 12.782116 16.193699 21.770445 31.782235 52.751248 125.195758
2026-05-24 10.052271 12.418944 15.768665 21.271114 31.227043 52.372690 128.100004
2026-05-31 9.550750 11.773982 14.907014 20.021299 29.182492 48.294458 113.668732